Posts Tagged ‘o’

Learn To Trade Like A Hedge Fund Manager (Part I)

July 25th, 2009

The difference between a professional trader and an amateur trader is that a professional trader never goes into a trade blindly. You see hedge fund managers have to show good results to their investors in order to solicit their investments into their funds. Hedge fund managers have to convince their clients that they have a battle tested strategy.

As retail or individual traders, our $10,000 account is just as important as any $20 million hedge fund. In fact, our $10,000 account is more important. We are staking our own hard earned money on trading compared to a hedge fund manager. He is most likely trading with other peoples money.

Most of the hedge fund managers follow a step by step process to develop their forex trading strategies. There is no reason why should we as individual traders also not follow that step by step process to develop our own trading strategies. We cant afford to lose our hard earned money in unsuccessful trading.

One thing should be clear; every trader has to find his/her own edge. We can learn from others. But in the end, it is our own methods and insights that will make us succeed as forex traders in the long run. Lets discuss the step by step process of developing our own trading strategy like the hedge fund managers.

Properly define your trading strategy. Every hedge fund manager like every trader follows a different methodology. Some use fundamental analysis. Other use technical analysis.

The first thing that you need to figure out is the style of trading that best suits you and what type of trader you are. Are you a short term trader like most day traders? Are you a long term trader and want to swing trade or position trade?

From the start, figure out whether you want to trade based on fundamentals or technicals or a combination of both. Hedge fund managers develop their trading strategies by defining clear cut trading rules and coding them. This way the hedge fund managers avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading.

Trading based on emotion is dangerous and can and will ruin you as a trader. Make your forex system rule based to make your trading as unemotional as possible.

You need to decide whether you want to be a news trader or you will use technical indicators in your trading. You need to pick a few currency pairs and become master of their behavior. Not all currency pairs are created equal and you need to focus on only a few to become a successful long term trader.

Every currency pair requires a different trading strategy to succeed. You need to understand this. Some strategies work best on one currency pair but dont work on others. Read more in Part II of this article how hedge fund managers develop their trading strategies.

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Using Interest Rate Differentials as Fundamental Trading Strategy

July 24th, 2009

As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.

The impact of interest rate changes is not only short term but also long term on the currency markets. One Central Banks interest rate decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.

In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.

Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the rate changes can be critical to the currency pair movements.

The reason why this is profitable is that international investors like big banks, hedge funds and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.

Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.

Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose the Australian 10 year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10 year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread between AUD and USD would be 350 basis points in favor of the AUD.

Suppose the Australian government raises its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points. The Australian 10 year government bond yield would appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread between AUD and USD is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The Australian Dollar will also be expected to appreciate against US Dollar.

The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.

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Using Commodity Prices as Leading Indicators

July 23rd, 2009

Commodities, namely gold and oil, have a strong and substantial correlation with forex markets. By understanding this relationship between gold, oil and currency pairs, you as a forex trader can gauge risk, forecast price changes as well as understand exposure.

Gold and oil prices essentially tend to move based on almost similar fundamental forces that affect a few currency pairs. Four major currencies, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc are considered to be commodity currencies.

The NZD, CAD, AUD, and CHF all have strong connection with gold prices. Natural gold reserves and currency laws in these countries result in almost mirror like movements. The CAD also tends to move with the oil prices.

However, the correlation between CAD and oil prices is not that strong. Each one of these currencies has a correlation with gold and oil and the fundamental factors behind doing so.

Knowledge of the fundamental factors behind these movements, their direction and strength could be a good method to discover trends in both the markets. There is a strong correlation between gold prices and US Dollar as well.

During unstable geopolitical times as well as when global recessionary fears become strong like that presently, investors tend to run away from US Dollar and instead turn to gold as a safe haven for their investments and hoard their wealth.

Therefore, as Dollar loses value, gold prices tend to rise as wary investors become afraid of losing their wealth. As US is going to print more and more dollars to finance its budget deficits, USD will depreciate and gold will appreciate. Many countries are trying to hoard gold keeping in view this anticipated depreciation of dollar. AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF are currency pairs that tend to mirror gold movements.

Global energy needs are wholly dependent on oil supplies. Oil prices usually tend to have a huge impact on the global economy. Dont forget, the early part of 2008 when oil and commodity prices jumped skyward taking the global economy to the brink of recession. Oil prices did come down due to the stock market crash but it is being forecasted that it will rise again when the global economy comes out of recession and the demand for oil rises again. USD/CAD currency pair tends to show an oil relationship. The major reason for this relationship is the heavy dependence of US and Canadian economies on foreign oil.

Generally speaking, commodity prices are usually considered to be a leading indicator of currency prices. As such, commodity block traders monitor gold and oil prices to forecast movements in currency pairs. The knowledge of this relationship between gold, oil and currencies can help forex traders to diversity their risk exposure using different products. The combination of gold and forex trading can be very profitable.

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How Seasonal Patterns Effect Forex Markets?

July 22nd, 2009

Most forex traders analyze and predict the future direction of currencies using fundamental or technical analysis. The craftier among them use the combination of both to predict direction of forex markets.

Fundamental analysis studies the long term effect of economic forces on currency markets whether financial or socio political using various economic indicators. Technical analysis is based on the premise that all available information is already compounded into the prices and the future prices can be predicted based on past prices.

If you have been trading stocks, you must be familiar with the term: The January Effect. It has been observed over a long period of time that stocks tend to perform very well between the last week of December and the first week of January.

The explanation of the January Effect is simple. During the last few days of the year, many investors are concerned about their tax returns. They try to realize capital gains or losses to file their tax returns. Many corporations also use the end of the year to face lift their balance sheets favorably at the end of the year.

Seasonality is not peculiar to the stock markets. In fact forex markets also tend to exhibit strong seasonal effects. Seasonality can be defined as a pattern that occurs at a particular period of the year.

The January Effect also takes place in forex markets because most of the investors who are liquidating their stock positions try to convert their local currencies into dollars at that time.

However, dollar may show stronger January Effect with some currencies as compared to others. It has also been studied that dollar shows a summer seasonality when it tends to rise in USD/JPY and USD/CAD in the month of July and give back its gains in the month of August.

There are other seasonal patterns that have been studied in other parts of the year. Now, it does not mean that these seasonal effects take place exactly the same way every year.

Seasonality in currency pairs only means that there is a strong probability that during a particular time of the year, the chances of a particular currency pair going up or down are high.

Forex traders should keep these seasonal patterns at the back of their minds while trading during that period.

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Economic Factors That Move the Forex Markets in the Short Term

July 21st, 2009
<div style='font-style:italic;' class='byline'>by Ahmad Hassam

Fundamental traders depend on fundamental analysis in trading forex. Technical traders depend on technical analysis in trading forex. But the importance of economic data cannot be underestimated in shaping trading strategies.

Over 90 percent of currency transactions are done against USD. USD is either the base currency or the counter currency in most of the currency trades.

Since majority of the currency trades involve USD, you as a forex trader will also most probably trade USD most of the time. Release of certain economic data has significant and lasting impact on currencies like USD.

With experience, you will understand that currency markets reaction to the release of different economic data with time also changes. A few years back, US GDP figures used to be important for USD but they dont have much impact now.

EUR/USD is the most liquid pair in the forex market and is heavily traded. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on the first Friday of each month has become important in recent years. These figures makes EUR/USD and other pairs involving US Dollar highly volatile for some time until the markets digest the importance of these figures.

Similarly, the release of US housing sales number every month has become very significant for USD in the recent years. Previously, forex markets used to give more importance to US Trade Balance.

Range traders like to trade when the currency pair they are trading tends to range. If you are a range trader who wants to scalp for a few pips every time you trade, you should avoid the day NFP data is released for trading. This is a highly volatile day for the markets.

However, if you use breakout trading as your trading strategy, understanding which economic data is expected to be released on a particular day can help you in your trading. You should plan your trading strategy in accordance with the significance of the economic data to be released.

In nutshell, understanding that some economic indicators move the forex markets most is very important for you as a trader. It is also important for you to know which economic data the market deems most important at any point in time.

You should also know which data causes knee jerk reaction in the markets and which pieces of data will have lasting reaction in the forex markets.

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Fundamental Trading Strategies in Currency Markets (Part I)

July 20th, 2009

As a forex trader you should use a combination of trading strategies in developing your forex system. This will hedge your risk and maximize return. There are a few strategies based on fundamental analysis and others are based on technical analysis. You can use a fundamental trading strategy that is based on big macroeconomic events for swing trading that may last from a few weeks to a few months.

Short term forex traders and day traders try to focus only the economic news release of the week and how it will impact their day trading. This works well for many traders. Learn forex nitty gritty, a method based on only 20 minutes trading a day.

Fundamental trading strategy based on macroeconomic events can make few thousand pips for you in a matter of a few weeks or months. You should not lose sight of the big macroeconomic events that may be bubbling in the economy or for that matter in world. Large scale macroeconomic events have the potential and ability of moving the forex markets big time for a long time.

The impact of big macroeconomic events has the ability and potential to change the fundamental perception about a currency not only for a few days but for a long time. Events such as natural disaster, political uncertainty, wars and international meetings have widespread physical and psychological impact on forex markets.

Therefore, by keeping on top of the global developments, understanding the underlying market sentiments before and after these global events and trying to anticipate them could be very profitable for you. At least it can help prevent significant losses in your currency trading.

You may ask what type of big events affects the currency markets in the long term. Important world summits, major central bank meetings, potential changes to the currency regimes, possible default by large countries, G-8 Finance Minister meetings, Presidential and Parliamentary elections in big countries, possible wars, FED Chairman semiannual testimony to the Congress. These are only a few examples of big events that make the currency markets jittery and may have a long term impact.

For example, 2004 and 2008 US Presidential elections were hotly contested. Candidates had different stances on the growing budget deficit and how to deal with the recession engulfing the US economy. This resulted in the overall USD bearishness.

G-8 meetings also tend to leave a long lasting impact on the currency markets. Combined these eight countries account for the two third of the world GDP. So whatever decisions that are taken during these G-8 meetings usually leave a short term as well as a long term impact on the global forex markets.

For example, the US Dollar collapsed after the September 2003, G-8 Finance Minister meeting in which the finance ministers wanted to see more flexibility in the exchange rates of the member countries. This meeting was also important as the US Trade Deficit was ballooning and going out of control at that time.

EUR/USD bore the burnt of the dollar depreciation. China and Japan intervened aggressively to stabilize their currencies. USD had already begun to sell off leading up to the meeting. The trend continued for many months after the meeting.

Therefore, the long term impact of these events is much more significant that the short term impact and the event itself have the ability to change the overall market sentiments.

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Understanding How the Forex Brokers Make Profits

July 18th, 2009

When you open a forex trading account, you will be told by your forex broker that there are no commissions involved in currency trading. Most of the new traders take their broker words as true. They think that the cost of trading is minimal.

Forex brokers also called FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) make profits through the bid-ask spread they offer to their clients for each currency pair. This bid-ask spread is the trading cost for you and the profit for your FCM.

Lets take a practical example. Bid/ask spreads are usually overlooked by the individual traders as the price they have to pay for trading. So lets calculate what your cost of trading can be in a year.

Suppose you are a day trader. You trade 5 times a day. Taking away the weekends, when you cant trade, there are 250 trading days.

As a day trader, you open and close your position before the end of the day. That means each position is traded 2 times.

Suppose; your start with an account size of $50,000. You are using a leverage of 4 only, you are cautious. So this $50,000 deposit will control (50,000) (4) = $200,000 for you.

Your Annual Turnover will be; (5) (250)(2)(200,000)= $500 M. Huge! Now lets calculate how much your broker will make and what your spread cost is. Spread Cost= (Annual Turnover) (spread)/2.

Suppose further, the bid/offer spread charged by the broker is 3 pips. 3 Pips Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0003)/2= $75,000.

Suppose, the spread offered by the broker is only 2 pips. 2 Pip Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0002)/2= $50,000.

You can see now, the cost of trading with a 3 pips spread versus a 2 pips is $25,000. Huge for you, this is 50% of your account equity. You see now that a 1 pip difference can result in $25,000 more as trading cost for you.

You will need to make a profit of $75,000 in a year simply to breakeven with a 3 pips spread. Trading costs are one of the most important reasons most active traders fail in the long run.

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Finding the Perfect Rental

July 6th, 2009

Finding that perfect rental may feel like trying to find that perfect mate. It can be difficult at times, but with persistence, you’ll find the best one for you. When searching for a rental, it can be stressful if you don’t know where to turn. There are several websites with listing online, but how reliable are those? What other things should keep in mind while searching for that perfect rental home anywhere in the nation including homes for rent in Utah.

KeyRenter has helped many people in your situation find the home they need. As a Utah property management company, they look to find qualified applicants for their clients who are homeowners renting their places out. In essence, KeyRenter is like a matchmaker in the real estate industry. Comprised of professional staff, they are able to ensure applicants and tenants that they are getting the home they want to rent. With several listings in their databank, they can find one that fits the location, price, and needs of a Utah rental home. There are many tips to follow when searching for a rental.

Have the right attitude: You won’t find the right rental home if you don’t have the right attitude for it. You’ll making a lot of phone calls, leaving messages, and setting up appointments to look at rental homes in Utah that you’re interested. You will have to be persistent and prepared to meet your potentially new landlord. Stay positive in your search and you will find what you’re looking for.

Your checkbook should always be with you: Keep your checkbook with you when looking at rentals, just in case you fall in love with a rental home and want to reserve it immediately before anyone else does.

Prepare references and rental background: Have in mind who your references are in their contact information. Landlords tend to ask for these so they can call them to get a better idea of who you are. Also, have your rental history prepared as many applications ask for this information as well. KeyRenter would ask for this information as well.

Dress appropriately at rental appointments: You may find the rental home you want, but you don’t impress the landlord with your sloppy grooming and dress. Be sure to make the best impression when looking at rentals. You never know if that’s going to be the one you are going to apply for. Good first impressions are always the best.

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Rent While Waiting For The Housing Market To Improve

July 3rd, 2009

U.S. President Obama recently said the housing market was “a crisis unlike any we’ve ever known.” In response to his own statement, he proposed to give $275 billion into the housing economy to lessen the struggles of 9 million homeowners. Another solution Obama proposed was for the mortgage companies to receive incentives and subsidies in order to help out the homeowners more. Of course there has been support and criticism for these ideas with Congress waiting to make a decision.

It usually takes a very long time for things to get decided in Congress, therefore, homeowners must still continue to struggle with this crisis on their own before government will step in. Owners may feel selling or foreclosure is their only option, but it is not so. Renting out your home is your safest bet during these times.

The option to rent opens the doors for the homeowner to still be able to pay the mortgage and have extra income come in. There’s no need to be intimidated when looking to rent your home or to look for rental homes in Utah. It is very easy when there is a Utah property management company helping you out to make the right rental decisions. It is the best company to lean on if you’re looking to rent.

It’s simple to search for rental homes in Utah with the help of a Utah property management team. You may be intimidated to start renting your home at first, but when talking to a professional who will help market, lease, handle finances, and even legal help, then you will feel safe with the choice to rent. No one really knows when the housing market will improve. The economy can go up and down affecting different areas of the U.S.’s industry. It’s better to be safe than sorry when a home is involved.

Tenants are usually easy to find since there are always individuals, students, couples, and families on the move and relocating always looking for a new place to live. Whether you have a large home or a quaint starter home, there’s always the market out there who are in search of your type of home or condo. Utah property management caters to potential tenants and provides them with a 12 point screening check to make sure all is good and the homeowner can feel assured things will go well during their rental experience.

Those who are searching the housing market will realize that renting a home is the better choice for now. Renting is more stable since you don’t own it, therefore, you’re not reliable for it in the long-run. You and the landlord are also bound to it by contract so nothing can go wrong. Especially if a Utah property management company is involved because they enforce rent payments and that the landlord is meet the house’s needs.

Sourcing Auckland Accommodation

May 28th, 2009

The kind of accommodation that you will find in Auckland all depends on two things: what you’re looking for and how long you intend to stay. If you’re visiting and looking for an Auckland accommodation for a week, for example, you’ll find a variety of options than those who are moving long term and seeking serviced apartments or living arrangements for their situation. There are many Auckland accommodation options that you can find, as long as you know what you need.

If you are looking for a serviced apartment, Auckland can afford you many different options to choose from. There are flats and apartments of all kinds all over the beautiful city of Auckland, so you are sure to find what you need. However, if you are travelling on vacation and seeking an Auckland accommodation like a hotel room or a rental house, there are many different things that you can find.

Hotels and rental homes are fortunately easy to find in Auckland. Literally, there are thousands of places that you can stay whilst on vacation in New Zealand. The options range from budget accommodations to high-end luxury suites and of course, everything in between. Being an all year round tourist destination, New Zealand can prove to be difficult when it comes to finding vacant accommodation. So be sure to book your accommodation well in advance to ensure that you get the Auckland accommodation that you want.

The city of Auckland is beautiful, and affords a different type of vacation than many other destination cities. The city is situated on an isthmus with water on two sides, and makes any vacation stay a beautiful one no matter where you find accommodations. Take the time to check a map when you are considering your Auckland accommodation, because you will want to make sure that the location suits your needs as far as what you intend to do while in town.

If you’re looking to get away for awhile or a long while, Auckland is a great choice of destination. Just plan your trip, pack your bags, and be on your way to the vacation of a lifetime. Rest assured that as long as you know where to look, you should have no trouble in finding the best Auckland accommodation that suits your needs and budget, no matter how big or small they might be. Book your accommodations today and be on your way to a relaxing vacation in no time at all.

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