Posts Tagged ‘health’

Using Commodity Prices as Leading Indicators

July 23rd, 2009

Commodities, namely gold and oil, have a strong and substantial correlation with forex markets. By understanding this relationship between gold, oil and currency pairs, you as a forex trader can gauge risk, forecast price changes as well as understand exposure.

Gold and oil prices essentially tend to move based on almost similar fundamental forces that affect a few currency pairs. Four major currencies, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc are considered to be commodity currencies.

The NZD, CAD, AUD, and CHF all have strong connection with gold prices. Natural gold reserves and currency laws in these countries result in almost mirror like movements. The CAD also tends to move with the oil prices.

However, the correlation between CAD and oil prices is not that strong. Each one of these currencies has a correlation with gold and oil and the fundamental factors behind doing so.

Knowledge of the fundamental factors behind these movements, their direction and strength could be a good method to discover trends in both the markets. There is a strong correlation between gold prices and US Dollar as well.

During unstable geopolitical times as well as when global recessionary fears become strong like that presently, investors tend to run away from US Dollar and instead turn to gold as a safe haven for their investments and hoard their wealth.

Therefore, as Dollar loses value, gold prices tend to rise as wary investors become afraid of losing their wealth. As US is going to print more and more dollars to finance its budget deficits, USD will depreciate and gold will appreciate. Many countries are trying to hoard gold keeping in view this anticipated depreciation of dollar. AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF are currency pairs that tend to mirror gold movements.

Global energy needs are wholly dependent on oil supplies. Oil prices usually tend to have a huge impact on the global economy. Dont forget, the early part of 2008 when oil and commodity prices jumped skyward taking the global economy to the brink of recession. Oil prices did come down due to the stock market crash but it is being forecasted that it will rise again when the global economy comes out of recession and the demand for oil rises again. USD/CAD currency pair tends to show an oil relationship. The major reason for this relationship is the heavy dependence of US and Canadian economies on foreign oil.

Generally speaking, commodity prices are usually considered to be a leading indicator of currency prices. As such, commodity block traders monitor gold and oil prices to forecast movements in currency pairs. The knowledge of this relationship between gold, oil and currencies can help forex traders to diversity their risk exposure using different products. The combination of gold and forex trading can be very profitable.

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Economic Factors That Move the Forex Markets in the Short Term

July 21st, 2009
<div style='font-style:italic;' class='byline'>by Ahmad Hassam

Fundamental traders depend on fundamental analysis in trading forex. Technical traders depend on technical analysis in trading forex. But the importance of economic data cannot be underestimated in shaping trading strategies.

Over 90 percent of currency transactions are done against USD. USD is either the base currency or the counter currency in most of the currency trades.

Since majority of the currency trades involve USD, you as a forex trader will also most probably trade USD most of the time. Release of certain economic data has significant and lasting impact on currencies like USD.

With experience, you will understand that currency markets reaction to the release of different economic data with time also changes. A few years back, US GDP figures used to be important for USD but they dont have much impact now.

EUR/USD is the most liquid pair in the forex market and is heavily traded. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on the first Friday of each month has become important in recent years. These figures makes EUR/USD and other pairs involving US Dollar highly volatile for some time until the markets digest the importance of these figures.

Similarly, the release of US housing sales number every month has become very significant for USD in the recent years. Previously, forex markets used to give more importance to US Trade Balance.

Range traders like to trade when the currency pair they are trading tends to range. If you are a range trader who wants to scalp for a few pips every time you trade, you should avoid the day NFP data is released for trading. This is a highly volatile day for the markets.

However, if you use breakout trading as your trading strategy, understanding which economic data is expected to be released on a particular day can help you in your trading. You should plan your trading strategy in accordance with the significance of the economic data to be released.

In nutshell, understanding that some economic indicators move the forex markets most is very important for you as a trader. It is also important for you to know which economic data the market deems most important at any point in time.

You should also know which data causes knee jerk reaction in the markets and which pieces of data will have lasting reaction in the forex markets.

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Fundamental Trading Strategies in Currency Markets (Part I)

July 20th, 2009

As a forex trader you should use a combination of trading strategies in developing your forex system. This will hedge your risk and maximize return. There are a few strategies based on fundamental analysis and others are based on technical analysis. You can use a fundamental trading strategy that is based on big macroeconomic events for swing trading that may last from a few weeks to a few months.

Short term forex traders and day traders try to focus only the economic news release of the week and how it will impact their day trading. This works well for many traders. Learn forex nitty gritty, a method based on only 20 minutes trading a day.

Fundamental trading strategy based on macroeconomic events can make few thousand pips for you in a matter of a few weeks or months. You should not lose sight of the big macroeconomic events that may be bubbling in the economy or for that matter in world. Large scale macroeconomic events have the potential and ability of moving the forex markets big time for a long time.

The impact of big macroeconomic events has the ability and potential to change the fundamental perception about a currency not only for a few days but for a long time. Events such as natural disaster, political uncertainty, wars and international meetings have widespread physical and psychological impact on forex markets.

Therefore, by keeping on top of the global developments, understanding the underlying market sentiments before and after these global events and trying to anticipate them could be very profitable for you. At least it can help prevent significant losses in your currency trading.

You may ask what type of big events affects the currency markets in the long term. Important world summits, major central bank meetings, potential changes to the currency regimes, possible default by large countries, G-8 Finance Minister meetings, Presidential and Parliamentary elections in big countries, possible wars, FED Chairman semiannual testimony to the Congress. These are only a few examples of big events that make the currency markets jittery and may have a long term impact.

For example, 2004 and 2008 US Presidential elections were hotly contested. Candidates had different stances on the growing budget deficit and how to deal with the recession engulfing the US economy. This resulted in the overall USD bearishness.

G-8 meetings also tend to leave a long lasting impact on the currency markets. Combined these eight countries account for the two third of the world GDP. So whatever decisions that are taken during these G-8 meetings usually leave a short term as well as a long term impact on the global forex markets.

For example, the US Dollar collapsed after the September 2003, G-8 Finance Minister meeting in which the finance ministers wanted to see more flexibility in the exchange rates of the member countries. This meeting was also important as the US Trade Deficit was ballooning and going out of control at that time.

EUR/USD bore the burnt of the dollar depreciation. China and Japan intervened aggressively to stabilize their currencies. USD had already begun to sell off leading up to the meeting. The trend continued for many months after the meeting.

Therefore, the long term impact of these events is much more significant that the short term impact and the event itself have the ability to change the overall market sentiments.

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Understanding How the Forex Brokers Make Profits

July 18th, 2009

When you open a forex trading account, you will be told by your forex broker that there are no commissions involved in currency trading. Most of the new traders take their broker words as true. They think that the cost of trading is minimal.

Forex brokers also called FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) make profits through the bid-ask spread they offer to their clients for each currency pair. This bid-ask spread is the trading cost for you and the profit for your FCM.

Lets take a practical example. Bid/ask spreads are usually overlooked by the individual traders as the price they have to pay for trading. So lets calculate what your cost of trading can be in a year.

Suppose you are a day trader. You trade 5 times a day. Taking away the weekends, when you cant trade, there are 250 trading days.

As a day trader, you open and close your position before the end of the day. That means each position is traded 2 times.

Suppose; your start with an account size of $50,000. You are using a leverage of 4 only, you are cautious. So this $50,000 deposit will control (50,000) (4) = $200,000 for you.

Your Annual Turnover will be; (5) (250)(2)(200,000)= $500 M. Huge! Now lets calculate how much your broker will make and what your spread cost is. Spread Cost= (Annual Turnover) (spread)/2.

Suppose further, the bid/offer spread charged by the broker is 3 pips. 3 Pips Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0003)/2= $75,000.

Suppose, the spread offered by the broker is only 2 pips. 2 Pip Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0002)/2= $50,000.

You can see now, the cost of trading with a 3 pips spread versus a 2 pips is $25,000. Huge for you, this is 50% of your account equity. You see now that a 1 pip difference can result in $25,000 more as trading cost for you.

You will need to make a profit of $75,000 in a year simply to breakeven with a 3 pips spread. Trading costs are one of the most important reasons most active traders fail in the long run.

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Article Marketing Secrets

May 2nd, 2009

Article marketing is the best way to attract massive publicity to your website. In article marketing you write articles on the topic of your choice. Then submit them to article directories, ezines and announcement groups.

You dont need to be great writer in order to succeed at article marketing. Article marketing is being used by regular every day people for driving traffic to their websites.

This is the free and best way to build massive back links to your site. These backlinks will count with the search engines and will increase ranking of your site on the search engines. You only require giving not more than an hour of your time everyday writing an article.

Suppose you are afraid to write. You consider yourself not a good writer. Believe me, if you can write letters to your friends, you can also write good articles with a little bit of practice and good advice.

Your article should not be too long or too short. It should be between 400-700 words for best results. When you write an article avoid talking about your business or your website in the body. Try to give your reader information that has value in an interesting manner.

In the beginning, write one article per day. Next day, again read the article you wrote the previous day. This way you will be able to take a fresh look at it and make it even better. Then submit it to article directories.

The title should be enticing enough for people to click on it. Start your article in an interesting and lively manner that compels the reader to continue reading till the end.

At the end of the article there is a resource box. You can talk about yourself here. It is the most important part of the article in addition to the title and the body.

In the resource box, you can talk about yourself. Try to tell the reader about yourself in third person. Here you can sell your business and your website.

Your resource box should be compelling enough for the reader to click on the link and visit your website. A good article tends to leave a positive impression in the mind of the reader and builds trust. It also establishes you as an expert in your niche.

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