Posts Tagged ‘futures’

More on Technical Indicators

August 14th, 2009

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is the difference between the 26 day and 12 day exponential moving average. A 9 day exponential moving average called the signal or a trigger is plotted on top of MACD to show buy sell opportunities.

You can use MACD in three ways: Crossover, overbought/oversold conditions and divergences. In wide swinging markets, MACD proves most effective. When MACD falls below the signal line, the basic rule is to sell. Similarly, when MACD rises above the signal line and cuts it from below, it is a buy signal.

When the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer moving average, it is likely the price is overextended itself. This indicates, it will comeback to the realistic levels soon. MACD is also very useful tool in telling whether the market is overbought or oversold.

An indication that an end to the current trend may occur soon is when MACD diverges from the currency pair. A bearish divergence occurs when MACD is making new lows and the currency price fails to reach those lows. Similarly, a bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs but the currency price fails to reach those highs.

Momentum is an oscillator that indicates the rate of price change not the actual price level and it is the net difference between the currency pair closing price and the oldest closing price from the predetermined period. The signal is triggered when the oscillator crosses the zero line. The more responsive the momentum oscillator will be to the short term price fluctuations, the shorter the number of days included in the calculations.

Another important technical indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It indicates a markets current strength or weaknesses depending on where the prices close during a given period. RSI is plotted on a scale of 01-100. A buy signal is triggered when RSI moves up from the lower band above 30. Similarly, a sell signal is triggered when RSI moves down from the upper band and comes down below a level usually set at 70.

Rate of Change (ROC) is another version of momentum oscillator sometimes used. Instead of subtracting the oldest closing price from the current closing price, the ROC formula divides the current closing price with the oldest closing price.

One of the most popular indictors is the Volume Indicator. It is used to show the strength of an up or down movement. A movement accompanied by an increasing volume is more likely to continue strongly than a movement accompanied with decreasing volume.

Many traders use volume indicator as their only tool in trading. Others use it in conjunction with charts, economic news and geopolitical news. The Volume Indicator is a great source of confirmation, entry and exit signals and overall trading decisions. Learn to use these technical indicators. Become comfortable in using them and discerning trends on different currency pairs and time intervals.

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Where To Place Stop Losses?

April 23rd, 2009

The intra day forex market is full of noise that it becomes difficult for new traders to understand where to put the stop loss. There is so much noise in the forex markets in the short run that prices tend to jump 10-20 pips for no apparent reason.

This becomes frustrating for many new day traders. Most constantly find their stop losses being tripped due to noise even when the rates are going in the anticipated direction.

Many new forex traders develop the habit of using a static 10-20 pip stop loss. This is an arbitrary decision. Many also try using a trailing stop loss. However, if placed too close; your stop hits too early. And if placed too far; you will have to forgo potential profits if the price retraces later on.

You should place your stop loss on dynamic levels. Most of the professional traders do use stop loss but mostly place it on their computers making them invisible to their brokers.

Because if brokers find many stop losses at a particular price level they can easily trip them using a momentary blip in their price feeds. You cant do anything. It was a momentary spike during to a sudden large transaction in the market. This is known as Stop Hunting.

Do you know this many professional forex traders only use a stop loss in their mind. They plan entry/exit for each position. Keep on monitoring it changing, the stop loss in their mind as the rate fluctuates. When they reach the desired outcome, they close the position. With experience, you will also learn to do the same.

Dynamic stop losses can be easily placed using Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, SARs etc. Using a dynamic stop loss is a good way to manage your risk while letting the currency markets do what it wants.

With more experience, you will learn that placing fixed stop losses actually harms more. Rather than helping, using a fixed stop loss can hurt you more emotionally, psychologically and profit wise.

Try not to trade just before or after a major economic news release. Try not to place stop loss close to/at round numbers. And try not trade in times of thin liquidity in the currency markets.

You should understand that your broker can and will use stop hunting to take out your positions using noise in the market as an excuse. Forex trading and casinos have many things in common. You should learn how to beat the markets and the brokers only then you will become a successful forex trader.

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